NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- For most of the final two months of the regular season, the Pirates operated with only two firm starters in their rotation: Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo. On Wednesdsay, Oviedo underwent Tommy John surgery, and while the team added Marco Gonzales this past week at the Winter Meetings, it still means that more eyes are going to be on Keller to step up.
If this team is going to compete, they need him to pitch like an All-Star again, if not even better.
"Mitch taking the next step forward is important for us," Derek Shelton said Monday at the Gaylord Opryland Convention Center. "Really, we saw a major step last year not only physically but mentally. We just need him to keep getting better. It's definitely something that I think we see there's more room for him to grow, and he sees there's more room for him to grow, and we expect him to take that next step."
The team feels the same way. It's why it's expected that the Pirates and Keller are going to resume long-term contract talks next month, per sources. The same goes for the team's other All-Star pitcher, David Bednar.
Those talks should begin when the parties try to settle on a 2024 salary rather than go to artbitration (it will be Keller's second turn through the process and Bednar's first). Assuming they can come to terms to avoid arbitration, which will likely be one-year deals, talks would ideally continue on into the spring about a long-term arrangement.
It's far from guaranteed that the Pirates will work out another long-term extension for a third straight year, but there is desire.
The Pirates and Keller explored a possible extension last year, but talks tappered off once they started talking money. That's hardly a dealbreaker -- Ke'Bryan Hayes and the team hit a similar road bump that killed extension talks in the spring of 2021, and then the two sides were able to come together early in 2022 for an eight-year deal -- but Keller isn't going to get his full market value if he signs an extension. No player does when they sign a pre-free agency extension, but they get financial security.
Every year that passes with Keller makes a long-term deal more difficult. This is the last year the Pirates can leverage a future arbitration year's salary in the negotiations. Next year, they are bidding against looming free agency. The following year, they are theoretically bidding against 29 other teams.
For this to happen, the two sides are going to have to meet somewhere in the middle (though firm offers from either side are not known). And while that might mean Keller wouldn't get full market value, A deal could still be very lucarative. The Bryan Reynolds extension, for example, was for $100 million in new monies.
The team likes and values Keller, both as a person and a player, and I've heard throughout the organization for over a year now how proud they are that he became an All-Star here after a rocky start to his big-league career. Keller has also been open that he likes Pittsburgh and the organization and would like to stay.
"Hopefully we can get something going with the extension talks," Keller said at the end of the season. "Hopefully this offseason we can get something going. I would love to play here. We have Reynolds and Key locked up. Hopefully we can get [Oneil] Cruz. We have all these different pieces that we can add. I would love to be part of it and be here for however many years. I think we have a really good window here to really do something special."
Keller is set to be a free agent after the 2025 season. Going off of the usually reliable Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors arbitration calculations, he is projected to make $6 million in 2024, more than double his $2.4375 million salary.
Bednar is in a bit of a different boat. For starters, he and the Pirates have never had significant extension talks. While this is a bit of an assumption on my part, I think it's safe to say he's at the very least open to the idea of staying in Pittsburgh long term. But Bednar also changed agencies this winter, going from Ballengee Group to WME, so that is an unknown variable.
Relievers are also more volatile a position, though Bednar has two All-Star nods to his name. He is projected to make $4.7 million in arbitration.
MORE FROM WINTER MEETINGS
• Gonzales' price tag for the Pirates: $3 million. Given the team's desire to get multiple starting pitchers this offseason, the move makes sense, though the report I got on him from an analyst wasn't exactly the most flattering.
• Payroll is going up in 2024. Last year it finished around $70 million. Based on the buzz I heard here this week, that figure should be somewhere around $75 million to a bit north of $80 million, depending on how some dominoes fall. Factoring Gonzales' salary and using MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration numbers, that would put them right around $53 million at the moment, so that would leave $25 million or so for outside additions.
• The Pirates had their eyes on a couple guys in the Rule 5 draft, either to keep or to send to Atlanta as a potential player to be named later to complete the Gonzales trade. Those guys were off the board by the time their ninth overall pick rolled around, which is why they passed.
• Don't take this as gospel, but rather an educated guess based on the buzz I heard in Nashville: The team would prefer to partner with NESN and the Penguins again for their broadcasting rights over going with Major League Baseball. At least for 2024.
• It sure sounds like the team is good with Jack Suwinski continuing to be their main center fielder. Ji Hwan Bae is probably their best defensive option out in center field, but he hasn't hit enough to earn an everyday job. The Pirates aren't opposed to getting help up the middle, but position player wise, they're looking at the corners (outfield and first base). Suwinski was worth -10 defensive runs saved in the field and +3 Outs Above Average, so the defensive metrics are mixed on him.
• Can't blame the Pirates for being careful and monitoring Andrew McCutchen's ankle before inking him to a new contract, but I would really expect him to re-sign. That's hardly a surprise, but it's good to hear those words out loud.
• Henry Davis was about to start catching more regularly before hitting the injured list last year, and by the time he returned, the focus was on just getting him at-bats. It really looks like it's going to be a spring training competition between him and Endy Rodríguez, and I wonder where that leaves Jason Delay. Yeah, he's not a starter and he has minor-league options, but the staff loves him (especially Keller). Teams can really benefit having a guy like him in the room, but can they carry him if he's only going to catch, say, once a week?
• A name to keep in mind when looking at the 2024 rotation: Mike Burrows. Got some good news when I inquired about his Tommy John rehab, and I would expect him back to competitive action midseason. Had he been healthy, we would have seen him last year. Barring a setback, I would expect to see him in 2024.
• Heard the Pirates and a former prospect of their's, Taylor Hearn, talked before he decided to pitch in Japan instead. I have to imagine that would have been a minor-league deal with a spring training invite, which would have been fine for a lottery ticket hard-throwing lefty.
• Could Jack Flaherty wind up being a Pirate? Theoretically. But I think the report that came out was a bit premature.
• Just because there weren't a lot of transactions doesn't mean it was an unproductive winter meetings. Actually, that probably applies for the entire league and not just the Pirates this year.
• Some ex-Pirates spotted I around the Winter Meetings: Chris Archer (who now works in the Dodgers' front office), the recently-retired Steven Brault (looking for a broadcasting job, which he would be perfect for, in my opinion), Clint Hurdle and Neal Huntington (who got to say hi to a lot of the holdovers from the previous regime). And, oh yeah, Jim Leyland, who received 15 of 16 possible votes in his Hall of Fame vote. Don't know who left him off their ballot, but it seems safe to say it wasn't Jim Thome or Ted Simmons, both of whom had votes and were in attendance for his press conference.
